They say don't look at the table until after 10 games, then you start to get a picture of the teams who'll be battling at the top come May and the teams fighting for their lives. If this is the case then Cardiff must be feeling pretty happy at the moment, with Peterborough slightly more concerned.
Following on from this theory then Birmingham are in for a long hard season, one of last season's play off teams are languishing in twenty first place, just three points above the drop zone. Take a closer look though and the former League Cup winners are just six points from the play offs, showing just how close and unpredictable the Championship really is.
This is why the Championship is arguably the most competitive league in the world, so called 'upsets' happen every week. Peterborough had lost seven games in a row before they went to Hull, who are doing quite nicely in the top ten, and put three past them in front of their own fans. Cardiff had won three on the bounce when they travelled to Crystal Palace and were two to the good at half time but lost 3-2. I wonder what odds you would have got on Palace at the break? These kind of results happen in every league but not as frequently as in the second tier, which is the reason why it's so tough to get out of. Whoever finishes top of a league usually deserves it and this is no more true than in the Championship, a gruelling 46 match, nine month marathon.
So who will triumph in May and will there be a surprise package or a late runner like Reading?
As I have said before, this league is unpredictable and 20 out of the 24 teams will have genuine hopes of promotion this season. Even as late as March that number will have only whittled itself down to about 16. It is very hard to predict who can last the distance, many times teams have threatened to stay but couldn't quite hold on.
This year Cardiff are looking strong, especially at home after winning all five games so far, and I feel they will be up there once again. But can they handle the pressure? It has got to them in the past having been play off finalists in 2010, losing to Blackpool, and semi finalists in each of the last two seasons. I think they will finally handle the expectation and pressure and I'm tipping them for success this year as I feel their home form will take them up.
Wolves were another team well fancied and after an early season wobble, are starting to hit their stride as their new manager gets acquainted with a new league. Stale Solbakken is best known for his very successful time with Danish club FC Copenhagen, where he won five titles. The Norwegian arrived at Wolves on the back of a less successful period though with then Bundesliga side FC Koln. It has taken them time to adjust to a new league and their new manager, starting off with an opening day loss to Leeds, but they are sitting pretty in third. I feel out of the three relegated sides that they will have the best chance of bouncing straight back as everyone is pulling in the same direction there, which is not the case at the other two. I'm not sure if they will make automatic promotion but I wouldn't fancy meeting them in the play offs.
Now this may seem biased to some people, based on the fact I support this team, but I really feel this could be the year Leeds get back up and I will explain why. Firstly we have Neil Warnock and there is nobody out there more experienced to get a team promoted, he's only done it the seven times! He knows this league better than anyone and the types of players needed to get you up. Take a look at QPR last season. Who would have thought a team that relied on Shaun Derry in the heart of midfield could get you up, but Warnock did and Derry was integral. Leeds are currently seventh in the table, joint with sixth placed Huddersfield on goal difference. This has been a good effort given the open fixture list which included Cardiff, Wolves, Blackburn, Blackpool, Hull, Bolton and Nottingham Forest. All of whom are expected to be near the top come May. They have also done this without last season's top scorer Ross McCormack for the last month. Every club's fans think they could win promotion and I am no different. I feel that with the right investment in January, if this takeover goes through before then that is, that a few tweaks would see Leeds hard to stop.
There are plenty of other teams I could consider for promotion. Blackburn will be up there but I feel the crowd unrest with the board and the pressure for whoever their new manager is, will be too much. Similarly with Leicester, recent rumours of Nigel Pearson under pressure despite them being second in the league. Is there smoke without fire and could this unease tell in the end? There is also Blackpool, Forest, Brighton and Bolton who will be making a charge. There could also be the possibility of a team making a late run, just as Reading did last year and Crystal Palace several seasons ago. The Royals were languishing in the bottom half in November but put in a sensational run to win the league comfortably by the end. If they can shore up their defence Burnley could be a bit of a dark horse this year, if they can keep hold of free scoring Charlie Austin.The league really is wide open but I feel Cardiff, Wolves and Leeds will be the lucky ones this year.
These are only my predictions and if I was certain to be right then I would be a lot richer as well! Please comment on who you think will reach the promise land this season. After all the banter, the emotion and the unpredictability is why we love this game so much.
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